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Re: [OM] NIB OM Prices

Subject: Re: [OM] NIB OM Prices
From: "John A. Lind" <jlind@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 24 Nov 2003 09:42:08 -0500
There's another strategy [OK, Conspiracy Theory] . . . don't know if it's done on ePrey or not.

It has a parallel in horse racing called "darkening [or coloring] the horse." In thoroughbred horse racing the owner can put the horse in races it isn't suited for (too long if it's a sprint horse; too short if it's a route horse; grass versus dirt, etc.). After building up a record of poor racing and perhaps dropping a notch or two in the claiming amount, the owner then trains it up to prime and enters it in one for which it's well suited and then bets heavy on it hedging that the paramutual odds will stay up.

On ePrey, someone could conspire with several others to make a series of transactions with exceptionally high closing prices . . . and then they sell their stuff after they've driven outsiders' perceptions about the market sky-high. Done well enough, it could easily repay the earlier transaction costs (ePrey commissions) and still have more than plenty left over. Relatively high risk that it would work, but the consequences don't involve that high a loss. If these guys turn around and start selling in a few weeks, my BS detector would go off here.

How's that for sophistication?

OTOH, the most credible theory to me is a couple of guys with more money than they know what to do with to throw at what they want. The closing prices I've read in this thread are absurd!

-- John

At 07:24 AM 11/24/03, Anderew wrote:
I'm not sure that's a shill:
 - gryphonbay bid very high early on, a risky maneuver if he's
   just trying to drive up bids.
 - He's adding "epsilon" (0.56) to his bids to defend against
   someone else doing likewise.
 - He covered his last bid with another, $25 higher, at the
   last minute.
 - He won (though of course this could happen to a shill).

So if he's not a real bidder he's faking it well. He may just be another
maniac with lots of money. :-)

On the other hand gr8southlongisland does seem to be getting very high
prices.

Andrew


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