I would propose that this is not an entirely valid analogy.
There is an argument from the computer side that computers have reached
a level of performance more than adequate for the use to which they are
put by the majority of users. Those who write ever more hardware hungry
software really don't have much way to make e-mail and web browsing more
hardware intensive. However this isn't my main point.
Once a camera has sufficient speed/noise/resolution to meet one's
photographic needs, everything else is just frills and price. If a
camera with xxmps gives me the results I want, another with 2xxmps is
unnecessary. I suggest that what will happen with 35mm replacement
Prosumer and DSLR cameras is that they will reach the point of more than
sufficient performance for the vast majority of users. Then where will
be a split, with improving performance for a price tempting MF and
possibly eventually LF users and the rest of the market providing the
same (initially modestly improving) performance at declining prices.
Look at the prices of medium range film SLRs. There is no particular
reason why 14mp (or whatever it takes) DSLRs shouldn't cost about the
same in a few years. The bottom price for a current performance PC has
hardly changed in years, while performance has skyrocketed. That's
mostly because the mechanical material and labor component hasn't
changed much. A 240gig hard drive takes the same amount of manufacturing
as a 20gig drive. Motherboards have cost about the same for ages. This
has not happened yet to DCs, but will.
Moose
cochran@xxxxxxxx wrote:
>Hi AG:
>
>Your "I'm reminded" story just lifted a red flag in my head for digital
>cameras. If things continue as they are today with digital technology, I
>fear that digital cameras will have the same fate of computers, they may
>become obsolete the moment you buy them. That is very scary.
>
>peace
>
>David
>
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