Gary Reese wrote:
> Old-timers probably expected me to say this: "I don't get it."
> Beyond the statisticians who didn't need convincing, didn't I
> prove to lay consumers at:
> < http://members.aol.com/olympusom/lenstests/default.htm >
> that condition is the #1 determinant of price, followed by
> uncertainty over a seller's professionalism? And on lenses it
> certainly makes a difference what coating it has. And, for choice
> examples, if the item is a box or not.
You are 100% right.
> What does an overall statistical mean for all sales thrown
> together tell anyone about value of a particular OM System
> component they may have in their hand? I can only think of one
> thing: you find a better than average example and only bid the
> average. If you get it, you have the piece of mind that you
> didn't overpay. But you don't know by how much. And if everyone
> is only willing to pay the overall mean, you'll never get a
> profit if you turn around and sell it in the same condition you
> bought it in. And if you later find you didn't realize the
> differences between different versions of the same lens, well
> then you might have overpaid . . .
Again, you are right. I do my stats for these reasons:
a) to know at what price RANGE things go. For that I
use the standard derivation formula. For my personal
use I comment some sales with notes like "brand new,
boxed" or "signs of wear, but immaculate lenses".
I do not include any item that has those suspicious
words like "not testet, laid for years in an attic --
needs cleaning, fell off table -- but no real harm".
b) to shoot misplaced OLY stuff at a bargain. Misplaced
to me is: wrong category, "wrong" time of auction end,
wrongly spelled identifiers or twisted letters etc.
I made amazing buys by watching for this. It is
amazing, how often a "CM 10" sells so much lower
than an OM 10, and the pictures clearly show
the label.
c) I learned, that most sellers AND buyers are not able
or willing to discriminate things like "silver nose",
serial numbers on 1.4/50s on so on. Examining the
pictures reveals some info, but often even the pictures
are as lousy as the words. That combined with (b)
allows to sometimes shoot nice stuff cheaply and
to resell the lemons without loss.
> Oh, I can think of another use of an overall average price list,
> but it works AGAINST most folks. Mr. Joe Dealer looks at your
> pristine example of a Zuiko and pulls out an averages price list,
> then says "I can only give you XX% of the price it shows." Think
> about how the seller gets screwed. That explains my premise
> without statistical mumbo gumbo.
In Germany two mayor foto magazines publish lists
of thousands of cameras and lenses (including Oly)
every year. They watch the sales through dealers.
Often these stats differ enormously from my 'Bay
stats. Interestingly less known, rare items often
are much higher with dealers (they know the rarety).
On the 'Bay these items seem to "fall through" and
can be aquired cheaply. With well known items like
"OM 10 with 1.8/50" the published lists still are
higher than 'Bay stats, mainly for the dealers'
mark-ups. But they are getting closer. The 'Bay
seems to be an effective and influential market
building instrument.
BTW: A mayor foto chain around my area started to
auction off its huge used items list at the 'Bay.
They just reach more potential customers.
Andreas
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