Beware of and view with skepticism anyone fool enough to pretend to have any
inkling about what the future may hold. Consider a few well-documented
examples from some of history's clueless know-it-alls.
Charles Duell, commissioner of the U.S. Office of Patents, in 1899: "Everything
that can be invented has been invented."
Oxford professor Erasmus Wilson: "When the Paris Exhibition [of 1878] closes,
electric light will close with it and no more will be heard of it."
The Literary Digest in 1899: "[The automobile] will never, of course, come into
as common use as the bicycle."
A Western Union executive: "The telephone has too many shortcomings to be
seriously considered as a means of communication."
An editorial in a Boston newspaper: "Well-informed people know it is impossible
to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing
would be of no practical value."
French physiology professor Pierre Pachet in 1872: "Pasteur's theory of germs
is a ridiculous fiction."
Lord Kelvin, president of England's Royal Society, in 1895: "Heavier-than-air
flying machines are impossible."
Marshal Ferdinand Foch, professor of military strategy at France's Ecole
Superieure de Guerre, in the days before World War I: "Airplanes are
interesting toys, but of no military value."
H.M. Warner, head of Warner Brothers studio, in 1927, rejecting the idea of
talkies: "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
Engineer Lee DeForest in 1926: "While theoretically and technically television
may be feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility."
Movie studio boss Irving Thalbert, explaining why he didn't want to make Gone
With the Wind: "No Civil War picture has ever made a nickel."
Thomas Watson, IBM chairman, in 1943: "I think there is a world market for
maybe five computers."
Popular Mechanics in 1949: "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5
tons."
An IBM engineer in 1968, referring to the microchip: "But what is it good for?"
And finally, my personal favorite, a Yale professor explaining the poor grade
he gave business student Fred Smith in 1966 for his research paper proposing an
overnight delivery system: "The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in
order to earn better than a C the idea must be feasible."
After Yale, Fred Smith, of course, founded Federal Express.
Walt, who knows little and believes less
--
"Anything more than 500 yards from
the car just isn't photogenic." --
Edward Weston
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