Thanks, Winsor. I had forgotten about Thom's predictions. I read the
whole page and have to say I think he's got it pretty well right. The
key point is that all these guys are going to be scrapping over a small
piece of pie. Not much money to be divvied up and no room for error in
judgements. I especially liked his advice for a startup DSLR maker.
Right on but no one will do it. There will undoubtedly be a lot of
marketing mistakes made and the field will be thinner by 2008 if not by
2007.
Chuck Norcutt
Winsor Crosby wrote:
> Thom Hogan exposes himself to possible ridicule each year by making
> predictions about the digital camera industry. He does pretty well,
> actually.
>
> http://www.bythom.com/2006predictions.htm
>
> Oly related:
>
> By 2007, the DSLR market will start to look like the consumer digicam
> market: too many players, not enough dollars, not enough growth, and
> much talk of who will go away permanently (KonicaMinolta, Pentax,
> Panasonic, Samsung, and Fujifilm are my choices, in order of
> likelihood). Olympus will be in a major battle with Sony over third
> place (and their 4/3 and KM mounts will be battling for third place
> in mounts, too). Nikon and Canon will be selling their lowest end at
> little or no margin to retain share. Like I said: brutal.
> ...
> 2006
> Olympus goes pro. Again. The E1 replacement rolls out at PMA,
> probably at 10mp. It's possible we'll hear of another pro body come
> Photokina (think small, light, basic, but pro). We already know
> Olympus's lens plans for 2006 since they've talked about them
> publicly, but I think they'll continue the pre-announcement game with
> a couple more pro-caliber lenses announced at Photokina that round
> out the 4/3 lineup. Like Nikon and Canon, watch for falling prices as
> they try to hold market share.
>
>
>
> Winsor
> Long Beach, California, USA
>
>
>
>
>
>
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