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[OM] Re: Konica Minolta withdraw from camera business: Digital Photograp

Subject: [OM] Re: Konica Minolta withdraw from camera business: Digital Photography Review
From: Chuck Norcutt <chucknorcutt@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 08:50:47 -0500
Actually, I was wrong.  Thom Hogan did have it pretty well figured out. 
  I just didn't pay enough attention even though I had read his 2006 
preditictions twice here: <http://www.bythom.com/2006predictions.htm>

The releveant bits:
------------------------------------
My prediction? Almost no dollar volume sales growth in 2006 (e.g. <10%), 
and a modest 30% unit volume growth. By 2007, the DSLR market will start 
to look like the consumer digicam market: too many players, not enough 
dollars, not enough growth, and much talk of who will go away 
permanently (KonicaMinolta, Pentax, Panasonic, Samsung, and Fujifilm are 
my choices, in order of likelihood). Olympus will be in a major battle 
with Sony over third place (and their 4/3 and KM mounts will be battling 
for third place in mounts, too). Nikon and Canon will be selling their 
lowest end at little or no margin to retain share. Like I said: brutal.
------------------------------------
The remaining question is can Pentax, Panasonic, et all be far behind?


And I really loved his sidebar which said:
------------------------------------
What I'd do If I were suddently the head of a new DSLR maker

1. Buy the Contax SLR assets lock stock and barrel.
2. Get the best FF Kodak sensor I can and stick it in those bodies.
3. Hire the Kodak SLR/n programming team to do the firmware and software.
4. Make the camera use DNG as the raw format.
5. Make the firmware and software Open Source. Make the workflow sing.
6. Build a real pro-oriented sales and support team.
7. Sell direct only (see #6).
8. Ignore mass market sales (e.g. US$499 DLSRs). The product position: 
only the best for the best.
------------------------------------

Chuck Norcutt


AG Schnozz wrote:

>>Well, here's one out of left field.  I don't think any of the 
>>prognosticators predicted this one.  As Yogi Berra said: "It's
>>tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
> 
> 
> Ouch.  What next?  Pentax gives the photo business to Samsung?
> This NOT a good thing for the industry.  At least Konica-Minolta
> still has copy machines to sell.  For now.
> 
> I like my A1 (last Minolta badged camera made) and was secretely
> hoping for a successor.
> 
> Sony is the big winner in this. They gain not only a foothold
> into the SLR world, but also will most likely get the transfer
> of a lot of patents.
> 
> AG
> 
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