> It has been reported that Kodak has never shown a profit on
> any digital effort. The entirety of the digital business has
> been supported by revenues from the film related businesses.
But is this like Ford's claim that they never made any profit on
the Escort because of the R&D costs? What happened in that
example Ford buried the R&D costs of everything from Mustangs to
F150s in it.
> Prthaps Kodak will have the last laugh, since Fuji and
> Konica have shut down their USA paper coating facilities.
Kodak has invested greatly in the kiosks and 1-hour photolab
systems. A couple of years ago, they revealed that this was
going to be their major revenue generation point. They've got
patents on everything including the kitchen sink.
As rich and powerful as Canon currently is, I don't see them as
being the long-term powerhouse. They've been quite isolationary
and aren't being the industry provider that the Sonys and even
the Kodaks are. Their success has been strictly tied to the
success of their own cameras. And don't count Kodak out.
They've come out with many different cameras and formats through
the years that over time have proven to be dogs, but while they
were selling, they "owned" the consumer products market. But
not only that, but they PROVIDED the bulk of the film used in
everybody else's cameras.
Putting my five-year goggles on, I see Kodak filing for
bankruptcy, reorganizing, spinning off the film division to
Ilford, moving the headquarters to Atlanta and remerging as THE
major imaging source for the next couple of decades. Or, they
will be acquired by Adobe. (don't laugh).
Meanwhile my five-year goggles tell me that Canon market share
will be around 30% and Nikon will have returned to dominance
because the "name" means something. Sony and Nikon will be
partners and probably will have bought out Fuji.
I predict that the Pentax medium-format digital will be a
long-term rousing success. Pentax has been regrouping and with
the Samsung connection has not only resources but deep
development pockets. They'll take their time and get it right.
Pentax's biggest competitors in MF are now gone. The reality
is, there is no hurry. With Canon so strong right now, a
slow-to-market approach isn't a bad thing. Pentax glass is
outstanding. And the ergonomics of the 645AF beat everything
but the now defunct Contax. It's sad to see the obituaries of
prominant brand after prominant brand. But, in the meanwhile
the early-lumpers that didn't pack it in will come back with a
vengence. Hassleblad and Pentax will inherit the professional
photographers that have finally grown tired of Canon.
What about Olympus? Five years from now Cameta will still be
dumping refurb E-1s.
Seriously, I think the Olympus-Panasonic-Leica marriage is a
win-win-win for that trilogy. The cross-licensing of
technologies mean that all three will succeed even if only one
is dominant in sales. I fully expect a software company to jump
in on this one. My guess is Google. I just wonder if Kodak will
be part of 4/3 or will they develop another format with their
own camera?
Sony? They will always be a strong force in non-pro sales,
which are actually the bulk. Panasonic knows very well how to
compete against Sony and probably welcomes that challenge.
Photography is cyclical in sales. I think that thanks to rapidly
increasing storage and bandwidth, and on-demand streaming, that
digital video is going to come on strong in 2008. Look at Sony,
Panasonic and Samsung to lead the way. Microsoft WILL be a
major player in this arena--not in direct sales, but in
cross-licensing. Can one company own any more patents?
That, folks, is my five-year prediction for the photographic
industry. I know where my retirement funds are invested.
AG
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