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[OM] Re: Mamiya

Subject: [OM] Re: Mamiya
From: "Bill Pearce" <bs.pearce@xxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2006 15:33:47 -0500

> But is this like Ford's claim that they never made any profit on
> the Escort because of the R&D costs?  What happened in that
> example Ford buried the R&D costs of everything from Mustangs to
> F150s in it.
Never underestimate the power of corporate accounting.

> Kodak has invested greatly in the kiosks and 1-hour photolab
> systems.  A couple of years ago, they revealed that this was
> going to be their major revenue generation point.  They've got
> patents on everything including the kitchen sink.
Kodak has a rich history of getting in and out of the lab and equipment 
business.
>
> Putting my five-year goggles on, I see Kodak filing for
> bankruptcy, reorganizing, spinning off the film division to
That's been in the cards for years. I think it will come true...

> Ilford,
I'm not so sure about that. I would see the chemical photo parts (film, 
color paper, chemistry, etc.) fall in the hands of a management buyout. Lets 
hope that it won't be a rerun of the Agfa thing.


moving the headquarters to Atlanta and remerging as THE
> major imaging source for the next couple of decades.
I don't know about that...could be anywhere.


 Or, they
> will be acquired by Adobe. (don't laugh).
With the money they will have made with the success of Lightroom as Aperture 
stumbles...

> Meanwhile my five-year goggles tell me that Canon market share
> will be around 30% and Nikon will have returned to dominance
> because the "name" means something.
Won't comment, except to say that I think Canon is the name today.

Sony and Nikon will be
> partners and probably will have bought out Fuji.
It could happen...

> I predict that the Pentax medium-format digital will be a
> long-term rousing success.  Pentax has been regrouping and with
> the Samsung connection has not only resources but deep
> development pockets.  They'll take their time and get it right.
Perhaps not as long as mamiya? now we know why the USA arm didn't ever 
announce the new camera as available.

  Hassleblad and Pentax will inherit the professional
> photographers that have finally grown tired of Canon.
The Fujiblad seems to have become a hot ticket lately. Apparently only the 
fondlers resist the Fuji glass. I certainly have a lot of respect for Fuji 
lenses, from a P&S to the Xpan and 4x5 lenses.
>
> What about Olympus?  Five years from now Cameta will still be
> dumping refurb E-1s.
Absolutely!

> Seriously, I think the Olympus-Panasonic-Leica marriage is a
> win-win-win for that trilogy.  The cross-licensing of
> technologies mean that all three will succeed even if only one
> is dominant in sales.  I fully expect a software company to jump
> in on this one. My guess is Google.  I just wonder if Kodak will
> be part of 4/3 or will they develop another format with their
> own camera?
Kodak can't seem to get their sensor business caught up with others. Maybe 
they need to crank up film production to get more capital.

> Sony?  They will always be a strong force in non-pro sales,
> which are actually the bulk.  Panasonic knows very well how to
> compete against Sony and probably welcomes that challenge.
This could prove interesting. Obviously, both are capable of producing pro 
grade  sensors.
>
> That, folks, is my five-year prediction for the photographic
> industry.  I know where my retirement funds are invested.
Mine's not in photography, that's for sure!

Bill Pearce 


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