Bill Pearce wrote:
> I continue to be depressed by the apparent lack of commerical direction in
> the Olympus digital line. If the E whatever doesn't come out soon, and with
> something dramatic, I predict a bad outcome.
>
It seems to me to be possibly valuable, as an analytical tool, to
separate what one would individually like from what will spell success
in the market place. I know what I would like Oly to produce, but I
don't know if that would be the best thing for them to produce from a
business perspective. Nor do I think they can do it just now.
In the DSLR market, they are a small player, on the edge, possibly,
between significant and irrelevant. But how are they doing relative to
how they hope/need to do? Spot shortages of some bodies and lenses a bit
ago suggests that DSLR and lens sales may actually be better than plan.
So while those of us with our own agendas whine, they may be doing ok.
Without strong financial position or backing or a technological
breakthrough, attacking the big dogs' positions of strength is likely to
fail. One tactic that has worked in the past in many different markets,
and specifically with the OM line, is to identify and provide products
tailored for un(der)served market segments. It's hard to tell, but it
could be part of Oly's strategy to do this.
The E-400 certainly is targeted at a spot or spots that are underserved
by existing products. Whether it will catch on and/or those segments are
big enough will not be clear for a while, but it is carefully targeted
where C and N are not the primary competition.
The E-330 is also targeted at an unserved area or areas. Live view is
unique, and will allow some users to accomplish things they couldn't
otherwise do. Live-view macro is even more unique and special. For some
macro applications, it will be the only tool that works. Again, whether
this will be enough, is to be seen.
Even the E-1 seems to me to be a targeted camera, whether intentionally
or not. Although already uncompetitive in some pro markets when
introduced, it was exceptionally good at a significant, bread and butter
pro market segment. I'm also not so sure that the reduced prices at
which it is selling are so bad. I've posted before about the enormous
accounting cost changes when a product continues to sell past it's
planned life. It is possible that the E-1 is quite a profitable product
and Oly has been in no big hurry to replace it, at least from an
accounting perspective.
Although they haven't brought out the body we would all like to see from
a prestige standpoint. they are a small company, and have brought out
several new and innovative bodies recently.
If Oly is to eventually compete head to head with the big boys, they
need to first get sales volume/momentum, start realizing increasing
returns from economies of scale and thus generate the financial
capability to do the R&D to develop and then be able to fund,
competitive products in the main arenas.
The Minolta path, where lots of their engineering and their mount live
on under other names is not what Oly nor most of us would want.
> Is anyone courious about the new Pentax? It seems that it could be very near
> where Olympus should be. Will it pan out?
>
It's an interesting camera. Like the Minoltas and unlike the Olys
mentioned above, it's hard to see where it is targeted. Such an odd mix
of pro and mid level features. Pricing will be important. it needs to be
cheap enough to offer pro level features at a price point where others
don't offer them, not where it doesn't offer what the competition does
for similar prices. Most amateurs go in when it rains, and aren't going
to pay a lot extra for weather sealing, for example. But if it is a
freebie, so to speak, it could sell some cameras.
One big question is how they will implement what is likely a Sony CCD. N
has implemented an overall sensor system that makes it very close to as
good as the C CMOS systems, and fully competitive in practical use.
Sony themselves have done a much poorer job in the alpha100.
Much as is made of anti-shake, it wasn't enough for Minolta's DSLRs,
which had some of the same neither fish nor fowl quality the K10D may
turn out to have. The move away from CF to SD cards only also seems odd.
Not because that may not be where the industry is heading long term, but
because it adds cost and complexity for anyone with an existing system
who wants to try the Pentax out. Some of us have a fair number of gbs of
CF cards around.
Just some thoughts that were bouncing around in my head and are now on
the loose.
Moose
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