> With the Pentax MF digital coming out and Sony kicking up their
> intensity, the Canon juggernaut could be coming to an end.
>
> Maybe.
I think Canon is most vulnerable at the low end, at least from Sony in the
US. They combine marketing more consumer oriented with access to just about
every big box store there is. If they really get moving with products their
own, it could get ugly.
> We're now entering a more mature stage
> in the DSLR world--where people are already starting to look at
> equipment replacement due to normal wear and tear. It's at this
> stage where Canon is most vulnerable and those who have
> medium-format background will want to migrate back up to it as
> soon as the right product is available.
>
The pro market could be vulnerable, especially as the pixel count rises.
Don't forget, there are pros that shoot things other than weddings and
protraits. Look at Steve Troy's brother. He needs detail resolving power. It
will be a big shift for commercial and industrial shooters that are now
fixed with mamiyas, 'blads and such to go to Pentax, but if the price is
right, it will happen.
> Pentax *could* be it. Like Olympus, they've always kinda done
> their own thing their own way, but in the end they've always
> survived to live another day.
> Lack of interoperability/modularity in the medium-format world
> hurt them, but yet they survived. Since Mamiya is now
> effectively gone, as well as Contax and almost everybody except
> Hassleblad which is reinventing itself with an incompatible H3,
> Pentax could end up ruling the medium-format world. In the land
> of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
See Reichmann's comments on the H3. I think he's right on the money.
Hasselblad was taking the MF digital market home, but this may mean the end.
Bottom
> feeder cameras are always on what appears to be a six-month
> intro cycle, but the pro-level cameras will stabilize. I
> believe Canon's undoing will have more to do with lenses than
> the cameras themselves. The next wave of pro cameras will
> utilize new L-Mark-2 lenses which will require an all-new major
> investment. At that point alternative brands may be considered
> again--especially since the noise/speed/yadayadayada
> specifications will be "good enough" from all of the makers.
Agreed.
> At that point we should be in a world where most camera makers
> should be back on more even footing.
>
Would be nice for all of us.
Bill Pearce
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