At the moment I'm reading a most interesting book - Black Swan by
Nicholas Taleb. About the impossibility of predicting catastrophic
changes. He is most interesting on the subject of risk management.
One example - if someone in aviation industry power had insisted on
airlines fitting secure cockpit doors one year before S11, not only
would that person not be regarded as a hero but he would probably
have been reviled by all and sundry in the industry and may even have
lost his job for wasting time and money.
Taleb claims that we are simply incapable of predicting anything more
than minor changes and problems that fit with our view of the
scenario. Anything outside the box is just not conceived of. And he
is not an engineer - spent his time on Wall Street.
Recommended reading.
Andrew Fildes
afildes@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
On 30/10/2007, at 7:49 PM, Moose wrote:
> As with Marc's story, and others in this thread, the real idiot is the
> one who should have know better when not under pressure, the control
> designer.
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