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[OM] Re: Well OT, financial markets, was public service

Subject: [OM] Re: Well OT, financial markets, was public service
From: "Stephan Van den Zegel" <stephan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 14:14:19 +0100
May be the answer is more refined...
As the B coach knows that the A coach will give instructions to put that
player forward... he will advice defense to specially care for that
player... counteracting it, which will have an effect on statistic too.
(sorry for my bad English...) it's a basic of science, invariants are
scarce... in a way it's a topical application of the Eisenberg uncertainty
principle.

Any way... which camera to use to take picture on a basketball field
(indoor, outdoor... white players, black players...) ? 

Stephan

(Sociologist who played a while with deterministic chaos and dissipative
structures... and therefore knows that statistics do not describe a
phenomenon...)



-----Message d'origine-----
De : olympus-owner@xxxxxxxxxx [mailto:olympus-owner@xxxxxxxxxx] De la part
de Moose
Envoyé : samedi 5 janvier 2008 6:25
À : olympus@xxxxxxxxxx
Objet : [OM] Re: Well OT, financial markets, was public service

On 28 Dec 2007, at 08:46, Andrew Fildes wrote:
> You may like the Gambler's Fallacy. :)
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
>   
I read an interesting study by a statistician some years ago. There is a 
common idea among many basketball fans that one might call the "Hot 
Hand" theory. When the score is tight and the game possibly in the 
balance, they think the team should feed the ball to the player with the 
best shooting percentage so far or recently in the game.

The idea is that someone who has been hitting a high % of shots in "on" 
in some way and thus the best bet to score now. As a basketball fan, 
this fellow set up a season long statistical experiment to determine if 
this was true.

The results were unequivocal, the Hot Hand theory was disproved. The 
person most likely to hit a "clutch" shot was the one with the best long 
term shooting %, regardless of his % in the current game.

So basketball players are statistically like coins.

Moose

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