Not sure I see any signs Sony would throw in the towel. They seem to
be taken seriously by wedding photogs already. The nice Zeiss glass
doesn't hurt either.
http://photo.net/wedding-photography-forum/00V98v
A cursory look around the wedding FM site however reveals the cat's
meow is a D3 and the Nykon long zoom.
More crystal ball predictions by Thom Hogan:
http://www.bythom.com/2010predictions.htm
Can't argue with CV--my opinion is only based on a few lenses. Money
well spent on the CV 125 and 180---latter just made a trip with me.
Nice and tiny, APO, 49mm front element, 1.2m MFD---kept a couple
entension tubes in my pocket and left most macro stuff at home---
Really didn't antecipate any macro opportunities this time of year but
a few things turned up----used Z. 85 F2 and the CV 180---no complaints.
Mike
Which industry? - Niche marketing?
> My money is on Sony.
>
Camera/Lens manufacturing/nameplating. Sorry, but Sony's history with
non-core products has been a bit sketchy. They come up with something
smashingly great, rule the roost with it for a few years and just as the
product reaches maturity they lose interest and go someplace else. I
just
don't see them in the DSLR world in 2015. From entry into a product
category
to exit seems to be about 8 years. The only reason I can see them
staying in
past 2015 is to stick it to Canon. But I think they'll basically merge
still
photography products in with Nikon and call it a day. The next
recession,
which will come in maybe four years will be a convenient time for them
to
call it quits.
Fujifilm is a bit-player that seems to ebb and flow. It is possible
that a
future chip design will be so revolutionary (I'm betting on six-color
sensors from Fuji) that they'll be the flavor-of-the-day in the
Professional
Photography Baskin Robbins, but as usual, that will be short-lived as
other
cameras will be better at other things--like actually being used.
Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax/Hoya, Sanyo and Samsung all will have good
years
and bad years, but Olympus seems to be good at being extremely
predictable
in market share. You can credit that company with being consistent
through
the past 40 years. In the NEXT recession, I expect two of the above
list,
except for Olympus, to exit the photography market on the retail level,
but
may be a supplier to others. What Sony does, Panasonic follows, so
Panasonic
will stay in--no matter what, until Sony exits. Sanyo and Samsung are
already the manufacturers of most things going into these cameras
anyway,
but they may get out of having thier own nameplate out there. Hoya will
eventually spin off Pentax to some management buyout and they'll merge
operations with somebody else--but will remain a bit player.
The sleeper in all this is CV. I've been researching this company for
the
past couple of months for a zone-10 article. To say that I'm impressed
is an
understatement. This company has been quietly going about their business
carving out a niche which nobody else has the stomach or profit margin
to
play in. What is surprising is how much Cosina manufactures (and
develops)
for other companies. Just like Hoya, they've become the company which
everybody owes. They have low-end products (which still are remarkably
good
in the grand scheme of things) as well as medium and high-end products.
They'll keep swallowing up bit-parts of the industry until one day you
realize that they've hoodwinked everybody and they are cash and product
rich. They know better than to try and compete DIRECTLY with Canon and
Nikon, but they are creatively finding ways to get Canon and Nikon
users to
send them money. They'll pick off companies one at a time and will
probably
end up being the actual manufacturer of most lower-tier Canon and Nikon
cameras anyway. I would not be surprised in the least if CV ends up
owning
Leica, Hasselblad or Phase-One/Mamiya. My money is on Leica and
Phase-One/Mamiya. Those chess-players at Cosina are a few steps ahead of
everybody and I wouldn't bet against them. Brilliant, really. A
company I
wouldn't mind working for.
AG
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