Ah but they didn't have to because they were protected by the sea wall of
course.
He (Taleb) uses the example of an hypothetical individual working for the
aviation authority in the US in 2000. This person decides that all cockpit
doors in airliners should be armoured and issues a decree to that effect. The
airlines scream blue murder about the expense by have to comply. He should be a
hero because 911 never happens, but because it never happens he is actually
reviled and eventually forced out.
Thus -
"We should re-site the off-site back-up generators to higher ground."
"But why, they're protected by the sea wall I designed and which we built at
the cost of millions."
"But what if it isn't high enough."
"Don't be silly, it's high enough to repel the biggest tsunami ever recorded.
And it was my idea. And I'm your boss. "
Andrew Fildes
afildes@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
On 15/03/2011, at 6:17 PM, Chris Barker wrote:
> Indeed, Andrew. But of course it would probably not have been that expensive
> to make the generators more durable against flood.
>
> Chris
>
> On 15 Mar 2011, at 05:56, Andrew Fildes wrote:
>
>> Clearly when it was designed, not enough 'what if's' were asked. "We have
>> multiple back-up systems" tends to lull people into a false sense of
>> security.
>> As Nick Taleb suggested, people do not anticipate the scale of catastrophes
>> because they lack the experience and imagination. Those few who do don't get
>> the funding to do it and if extravagant protective measures are actually put
>> in place, those who designed them are accused of a pointless waste of
>> resources if nothing happens, as it usually does.
>
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