I don't think it will be the M9 killer, but it will be the m4/3
killer. Tell you what, the all-black X100 looks the stuff!
As to the possible six-color sensor, I predicted this in my "Pixel
Wars - The Next Generation" article on www.zone-10.com written in
November, 2009. It's just a matter of time. The primary advantage is
an expansion in color gamut--especially in the first and last two
bits. The RAW files will probably end up with derived 3-colors, but
the in-camera processing to get there will be substantially enhanced.
Once one company successfully markets multi-colored sensors (Olympus
and Panasonic have totally ignored this as a marketing tool, even
though they've been using 4-colors in all Four-Thirds sensors from the
beginning), the industry will break loose and you'll see a sensor war
all over again. The luminance sensel has already started working its
way through the system.
The M10 is also about due. The Fuji-style hybrid viewfinder rumors
predates the X100 by at least a year. The Platinum M9 was also a sign
of things to come. The primary issue with Leica is the current
limitations of live-view with CCD sensors. One of two things have to
happen. Either the live-view CCD gets released or Leica will
transition to CMOS. I am predicting a hybrid sensor that is CCD for
the primary imaging with low pixel-count CMOS type of overlay for
live-view functions. Sorry, no AF capability yet. ;)
As to the sensor size in the X-Pro1 as not being full-frame, I think
this is a repeat of the DSLR era. All DSLRs used crop-sensor cameras,
except for a couple fringe-pro-level cameras. It wasn't until Canon
came out with the 5D that we finally got SOMETHING that we were asking
for. A lower-cost DSLR with full-frame sensor. But, in the case of
Canon, that followed the D30, D60, 10D and 20D. It was the fifth
iteration of the serious DSLR. Nikon's history is also similar with
the march towards the D3/D700. Minolta-Konica-Sony was the same deal.
Of the majors, only Pentax and Olympus have doggedly stuck to
crop-sensor cameras. OK, Panasonic, except Panasonic is now
essentially the sole manufacturer in Four-Thirds. So, what will happen
is the crop-sensor cameras will be all we get in the CSC format for at
least a couple more iterations.
As we trudge forward in a Tim Conway "The Old Man" walk, buying each
new system that comes along, we as quickly discard the old, which was
kinda nice, but still not there yet. Just in the world of CSC cameras,
look at all the models that have come and gone--and this has been only
over a period of three or so years. That GF1 or E-P1 doesn't seem so
glorious anymore. The chrome Fuji X100 is already old news. The Sony
NEX-7 has just been superceded even before deliveries are up to speed.
And let's not forget that Canon has yet to fire a gun at the CSC
market.
Exciting times? Well, not quite. Intruiging, yes, but we're still just
seeing camera models come and go until some level of maturity arrives.
In the end, there will be few cameras that stand out and stay in
people's collections. What DSLRs from 10 years ago are you proud to
have on your shelf? How about lenses? The old adage about lenses
lasting years and years is bogus. The manufactures figured out how to
keep changing lens mounts, or adding some new feature (distance, IS)
which obsolete the lenses. Of course, just like lemings, we buy the
new lenses with almost every new body.
I feel sorry for anybody who got screwed by Olympus to think that
those very expensive Four-Thirds telephotos would have ANY future
value. It is my own personal opinion that it would be foolish to spend
any serious money on anything m43 either. I consider that format to be
disposable.
My point is that the new Fuji is very interesting and potentially a
camera for the ages, but looking back through the years we've seen
many very smartly designed cameras come and go. This one, though,
might just be one of those standouts. But my Panasonic DMC-L1 with
Leica 14-50 had potential but was abandonded, never perfected. Will
the XPro1 be another DMC-L1? We do not know.
What I do know is that if this new camera is even better than the X100
in IQ and addresses a 10th of the stupidness, it will be an instant
winner among the "new shiny" crowd.
AG
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