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Re: [OM] storm

Subject: Re: [OM] storm
From: Bob Whitmire <bwhitmire@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2013 08:37:10 -0500
Oh, I know. And I think you should pay the price if you guess wrongly too many 
times. As in "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" when the bad guy chose 
unwisely. <g>

Actually, this most recent blizzard provided a good example of what you're 
talking about. Apparently there are two principal modeling modes in weather 
forecasting: European and American. According to our weather guy, these models 
are not _for_ Europe and the US, they're just two different ways of looking at 
the same data. For the last blizzard, the two models showed different storm 
tracks, and the weather critters were reduced to using their experience to take 
a swipe at which model was more correct.

Sadly, I don't remember which of the two was closer to reality. And to be 
completely honest, I'm not sure I recall accurately what was said about the two 
models.

--Bob


On Feb 14, 2013, at 2:11 AM, Chris Barker wrote:

> There's a lot of guesswork in forecasting, Bob.  I think that the best result 
> that they can achieve is 50%.  There is now too much reliance on computer 
> models, not on individuals with experience of particular places or states of 
> the atmosphere.
> 
> Good luck with your weather.

-- 
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