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Re: [OM] Monarch Disappearance

Subject: Re: [OM] Monarch Disappearance
From: Ken Norton <ken@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 26 Nov 2013 08:47:50 -0700
> We may have fallen into the trap of applying simple logic to a complex 
> system. As I recall, James Gleick's "Chaos" had a section on the chaos 
> effects on animal populations, with sudden huge increases or drops that make 
> no sense from environmental factors in any linear, sensible way.
>
> Not trying to say this is so or not, only that is is a known factor to 
> consider.


We like simple math and linear responses. Take global climate change
(warming?). We've seen a generally linear response between the
temperature increase and the rising oceans. That may continue into the
future and using past performance to predict future returns is
generally considered to be a safe calculation. But is it? No, it
isn't. A seeminly unrelated event or localized phenomona can have an
impact on the equation in ways that can't be predicted, unless you are
into apocolyptic predictions and space aliens.

A case in point, would be the massive amount of Methane locked up in
the ice and permafrost. Just one burping lake could unleash enough
Methane to have a measurable effect on the entire global system. One
lake could single-handidly move the prediction charts by five years.

And then there are other things that should really scare us. What if
the great conveyer came to a screeching halt? What would it take to
make that happen? Surprisingly, not much.

Which brings us back to the Monarchs. This year's severely low numbers
is contributed to by multiple related and unrelated events. But we
know that the drought in Texas (and one in the midwest), combined with
that one storm in Mexico put extreme pressure on the population of
them. Is loss of habitat is issue elsewhere? Somewhat, yes. It's easy
to look at Monsanto and Ethanol as the cause, but is that measurably
true?

Iowa has around 31 million acres of farmland. CRP land (government
setaside) is about 1.5 million acres, of which about 2/3 of that is
either low yield, not even tillable (the only thing you can run on it
is grazing critters) or wetlands. It's not just the butterflies
suffering right now--the northern plains have seen a crash in the
pheasant population. Along with that are declines in other creatures
that feed on the pheasants. As to the putting CRP land back in
production, if we look at CRP land, not as a means of an ecosystem
buffer, but as a farmer welfare program (which it really is), then it
only makes sense to keep the land in production. If we need more
buffer, then there are other ways of accomplishing the task. But
keeping production land out of production in order to jack up crop
prices is poor policy. We continue to live the legacy of the socialist
Henry Wallace in this regard.

Iowa has been aggressive in turning highways into prairie projects. I
believe it would be very safe to say that for every effective acre of
CRP land put back in production, the highways departments are at least
equally offsetting it.

BTW, we had been seeing more and more no-till and other alternative
farming methods. Turns out that you can greatly reduce your input
costs by avoiding Pioneer/Monsanto. But at what cost? I can cut my
input costs in half. But the reduction if yield offsets the input
costs and it's a wash in typical years. If crop prices go sky high,
having more crop (indstrial famring methods) will result in greater
income. If the crop prices stay low, having reduced input costs are
beneficial. We were trending hugely towards no-till and alterntive
methods, but more and more farmers are now holding a large portion of
the crop back and selling it up to a year later to get the higher
prices. If you own your own bins, going industrial on farming methods
is the most profitable way to go.


-- 
Ken Norton
ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.zone-10.com
-- 
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