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Re: [OM] Mirrorless doomed?

Subject: Re: [OM] Mirrorless doomed?
From: Moose <olymoose@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sat, 04 Jan 2014 20:55:15 -0800
On 1/2/2014 2:27 PM, Ken Norton wrote:
> Canon has been silent for too long. Something is up. I mean,
> seriously, this is the company that dominated the industry by out
> engineering the competition every which way AND north. If I ... had just 
> bought a full-blown system from one of the other guys, I'd be concerned right 
> now.

Get real, dood. Just because C or N comes out with new stuff, what I have 
doesn't suddenly not work, or take poorer 
images. So it happens, and within a couple of years, Panny, then Oly throw in 
the µ4/3 towel. The gear will still be 
perfectly fine for probably more years than I need before becoming 
technologically obsolete.

I think you may be missing an important reason why Canon has not moved. They 
are about high volumes. MILC is still 
relatively small, and not wowing the West. To do things their way,they would 
need not only cameras, but a lot of new 
lenses for the new mount. That's a whole lot of investment for a possibly 
limited market. They may agree with you, that 
µ4/3 is just flavor of the month, and that the whole segment may be so, as well.

The risk of a whole lot of investment and inventory not only hanging out to 
dry, but having moved customers away from 
their bread and butter, must be sobering. Clearly, they would prefer to believe 
that it's all only about small, light 
cameras, hence the 100D/SL1.

> I say this because of the lukewarm reception to the Sony A7. As
> brilliant as this camera is (and it is very good), there is something
> missing--other than just lenses. It is failing to connect with the
> buyers.

Might it also be that the actual number of buyers for FF cameras is pretty 
small? Not even you are among them as yet. 
Pleasing folks who natter, but don't buy don't pay the rent. :-)

> Part of that is the price, which is on the high end of most
> people's comfort zone,

We will not know what Sony's sales target is. They may have a more realistic 
idea of the number of potential buyers, and 
have priced accordingly, to make a profit on a small run.

> but another thing is that it's SONY. Olympus
> has a brilliant camera with the OM-D series, and has a very vocal
> support among the enthusiests, but is missing the dealer network it
> needs to survive.

How important is that today? Oly is the leader in their important category 
without one. I've bought quite a bit of 
camera gear in my move to µ4/3, and not single body or lens from a bricks and 
mortar dealer. Oly's on-line dealer 
network is just fine.

> B&H is doing well, but the dealers I talk with
> indicate that the sales of Olympus gear are very spotty. There is a
> rush and then nothing. This one dealer in Denver was praising the
> incredible sales of the EM5, but then admitted that he sold more
> Canons every week then he did ALL Olympus cameras for the year. So,
> it's all relative.

And so are profits. If I'm geared to sell 1,000 units a year, and sell 1,200, 
I'm in fat city. If I'm geared to sell 
120,000 and sell 100,000, I'm in trouble.

I have no idea what Oly's goals are, nor how they are doing with them. I do 
know they are the market leader, big fish, 
in their small, MILC pond. Even half decently managed market segment leaders 
usually do OK.

> Meanwhile, all eyes are on Sigma. The NYT technology guy LOVES Sigma.

Obviously, I've missed some bit of current cultural info, or another (overly) 
clever joke based on reading everything 
about the industry every week.


Short Sigma Moose

-- 
What if the Hokey Pokey *IS* what it's all about?
-- 
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