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Re: [OM] OT: Weather

Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Weather
From: Ken Norton <ken@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2014 16:49:20 -0500
> Sometimes.  If the amount of rainfall runoff exceeds storage capacity then 
> you have to release it.  With snowpack you get a slower inflow and less need 
> for release.

But you get sublimation with snow...


> If I look at this in detail, the Great Lakes storm is a second lower latitude 
> centre of the Hudson Bay cyclone, the other centre sitting over the southern 
> tip of Greenland.  This will be fed along the western side by a jet of arctic 
> air from Baffin Island southward on Sunday, which will accelerate things.

OK, I see it now. Had to change to a different map and your 500mb
recommendation was good because it eliminated the surface clutter. :)

The low which I was tracking across from the Great Lakes goes east and
then stalls south of Nova Scotia where it appears to intensify. That's
going to play games with the air routes...


> GFS 12 is presently showing the peak of activity around Monday morning to 
> afternoon with a band of vorticity stretching from north Texas, through 
> central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and Nebraska, then ending in South Dakota.  
> My educated guess is that Missouri and Iowa will see some activity in the 
> late afternoon and evening.
>
>      This system is still evolving to a worse case scenario.


500mb plot:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=500&region=us&t=7e

However, the SL plot isn't quite lining up yet:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=pres&region=us&t=7e

Looking at the 1000mb plot, it looks there is a thin cold air mass
sliding in under this upper level low:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=1000&region=us&t=7e

I don't play a weatherman on TV, but this looks to me like Kansas and
Oklahoma could be the place to be if you are a storm-chaser Monday
Evening. There's going to be a ton of twist to the atmosphere. We'll
see how this evolves over the next couple of days.


-- 
Ken Norton
ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.zone-10.com
-- 
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