>
>>Looking at the 1000mb plot, it looks there is a thin cold air mass
>>sliding in under this upper level low:
>
>Updated plots. Everything slid north for Monday. It looks like it
>could get really wild and wooly in SW Iowa on Monday. This will bounce
>around a bit over the next few days as the models tighten up, but
>we're certainly looking at the likelihood of springtime excitement. If
>I was a storm-chaser, I'd have next Monday inked in on my scheduler.
>Not penciled, but inked.
>
>The KCI-OMA-DSM Triangle is currently ground zero.
>
Now that this storm is well within the NAM timeframe, it is looking like a
real monster once it enters into the Great Plains. The severe weather activity
will probably begin early Sunday morning, increasing in intensity and area
throughout the day, reaching a peak in the afternoon from northern Texas,
through central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and Nebraska, then into western Iowa
and Missouri by evening, followed by Illinois and Wisconsin late Sunday evening.
It will be slowed by a ridge of high pressure, allowing another airmass of
energy to combine with it from the west. This will increase the intensity and
breadth of the margin from the southwest to the southeast, resulting in severe
weather from central Texas into northern Mississippi on Tuesday, then into the
Deep South on Wednesday. In the meantime, the western margin will extend into
the Four Corners area.
The Piedmont will get hit with this on Friday after the high pressure
ridge dissipates, making a real mess in the Mid-Atlantic and New England next
weekend.
It's a biggie, no doubt.
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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