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Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Juaquin

Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Juaquin
From: Chris Trask <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015 13:52:18 -0700 (GMT-07:00)
>
>     Juaquin has now strengthened to hurricane status, and the forecast is 
> getting a bit 
>grim.  The NHC forecast predicts that it will be due east of Norfolk, VA on 
>Monday, then 
>heading towards Philadelphia.  An extension of this, seen on CBS this morning, 
>forecasts 
>that it will make landfall somewhere between Philadelphia and New York City as 
>a category 
>1 storm.
>

     I've been looking at a few forecasting systems about this, and I can now 
see how it is that UKMET Storm Tracker is dramatically different from NHC.  Two 
features shown on GFS come into play here, the first being a moderate 
low-pressure system that is developing over the southeast.  The second is a 
high-pressure system developing north of Bermuda.  The high-pressure system 
will give Juaquin a kick to the west, shoving it into the northeast corner of 
the low-pressure system, just enough to draw it in and cause it to continue 
westward and be absorbed.

     This scenario is similar to that of TS Sandy, and if it proves to be 
valid, then the UKMET and GFS forecasts will be correct.  Based on this, 
landfall should take place along the North Carolina coast early Sunday and the 
storm will proceed rapidly westward.


Chris

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro 
     - Hunter S. Thompson
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