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Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Joaquin

Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Joaquin
From: Chris Trask <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 2015 11:41:43 -0700 (GMT-07:00)
     Hurricane Joaquin is now at category 4.  The damage in the Bahamas must be 
massive with this sitting on top of them for 2+ days.

Chris

>
>>
>>I'm not seeing how any of these models are anywhere near correct. The
>>upper air data just doesn't read right to me.
>>
>>First of all, there is too much shear. Secondly, this thing just isn't
>>moving. These storms, by this point in their development tend to
>>become self-propelled. This one isn't at all. Based on that, I would
>>say that it's going to get shoved farther east. Yet, the way the upper
>>air layers look, I'd say that it's going to drop back down to a TS or
>>Cat1 and lose the tops. As it comes ashore, it will be a major rain
>>event with lower winds. It's just not taking control of its
>>neighborhood.
>>
>
>     It is strange, to say the least.  I've been watching the developing 
> high-pressure 
>system north of Bermuda.  GFS missed this feature when forecasting Sandy, but 
>UKMET caught 
>it and got the forecast right.  If that high-pressure system is strong enough 
>it will 
>prevent any tracking to the east.
>
>     UKMET has Joaquin passing right over Bermuda.
>

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