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Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Joaquin

Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Joaquin
From: Chris Trask <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2015 11:33:20 -0700 (GMT-07:00)
     Parts of the Bahamas are going to get as much as 25" (yes, twenty-five 
inches) of rain from this.

     I'm paying close attention to the NAM 500mB VH forecasts.  They are still 
showing that Joaquin will be absorbed by the low-pressure system over the 
southeast just as GFS had done earlier, aided by the high-pressure system 
between Bermuda and Nova Scotia, then being pushed/dragged into North Carolina 
near Cape Hatteras on Monday/Tuesday night.  This was not obvious yesterday but 
it is now.

     My usual stance is to focus confidence on NAM inside the 4-day time frame. 
 The dynamics of this storm remain unstable, so it won't be over until it's 
over.

Chris

>
>>      Yes, Joaquin is firmly anchored over the Bahamas and will remain so 
>> until 
>>tomorrow.  Having a category 4 storm stationary over land has got to be 
>>devastating.  
>>No news from the Bahamas as of yet.
>
>The latest on the direction is now 3kts to the NW. This is the first
>sign of northward movement at all, but it is still effectively
>stationary.
>
>That dry air mass from the NE has finally gotten to it overnight.
>We're going to get some really wild dry-line storm explosions as it
>plows into this and could give it more spin. It could go Cat5.
>
>Another thing I'm noticing is how this storm is now influencing the
>air mass coming in from the west. Normally, those air masses will
>shove the storm along (moving it north in this case), but this thing
>is pushing back, so to speak. If it stays stationary another day, it
>just might end up moving west across Cuba instead of going north. I am
>interpreting the data is indicating that a west vs. north movement is
>literally a hundred mile coin flip. If it was 100 miles further
>south...
>
>If it holds it's position another day and is able to overpower the air
>mass coming in from North America, all bets are off where it will go.
>I'm not convinced that it is a forgone conclusion of an Atlantic
>track. We'll see what happens with the next position update.
>

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