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Re: [OM] Hurricane Matthew

Subject: Re: [OM] Hurricane Matthew
From: Chuck Norcutt <chucknorcutt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2016 06:05:57 -0400
NOAA's 5 AM track for Wednesday 10/5 shows a significant difference from the previous several forecasts. Previously, the location for "2 AM Sat" was right on the coast at the North Carolina/South Carolina state lines. Now it's near the Florida/Georgia line and a significant distance from the coast. This shows a significant slowing of the path of the storm and also a significant weakening. IIRC, the storm was still a Major (M) hurricane at that latitude in previous forecasts.

Also, this morning came (to me) the "great clarifier". Governor Haley had previously announced a complete coastal evacuation for the state. This made no sense to me for a Category 2 storm. Horry County (my county) has three evacuation zones (A, B, C) all based on flooding from storm surge. By my calculations only Zone A (most vulnerable) should be affected in a Category 2 storm whereas, it should take a Category 4 storm to flood zone C. This morning they finally announced only Zone A is affected by the evacuation order. The neighbors who elected to leave last night may not be amused.

My hurricane panels have been installed so I should be in good shape for protection from wind damage. I managed to get the original supplier to install my panels. That was a great relief. I have been fairly quiet on the list lately since a week ago I had my left knee replaced. I am in no physical condition to do much of anything. (actually re-replaced. I had it done 2 years ago but the prosthesis had come detached from the bone and was causing me significant pain.)
Lesson: don't have knee surgery during hurricane season.

Chuck Norcutt


On 10/4/2016 4:05 PM, Charles Geilfuss wrote:
  SC governor has ordered coastal SC evacuation beginning 3pm Wednesday.
They will reverse I-26 so all lanes are west-bound. My family and I will
shelter in place at the hospital which is 30 miles inland. All coastal
county schools are closed Wednesday through Friday. Stay safe, Chuck, eye
may come ashore near you.

Charlie

On Tue, Oct 4, 2016 at 10:06 AM, Chris Trask <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

     The track forecast for Hurricane Matthew has matured well in the past
48 hours, and there is now a good concensus between NHC, GFS, and UKMET.
Overall, Matthew will pass northwestward along the length of the Bahamas,
arriving just off the Florida coast on Friday.  It will then follow along
the coast, possibly moving slightly inland north of Savannah on Saturday
and near Cape Hatteras on Sunday.

     Adding to this is the likely formation of a second tropical cyclone,
the disturbance presently 500 miles northeast of Puerto Rico, moving to the
northwest at about 10 to 15 MPH.  The low pressure system approaching from
the west may actually cause Matthew to strengthen northeast of NYC.

     UKMET has Matthew passing over Norfolk, Chesapeake Bay, Dover, New
Jersey, NYC, Boston, Portsmouth, and then into New Brunswick on Monday.

     This is going to be a significant rain event for the entire Atlantic
coast.


Chris

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
     - Hunter S. Thompson
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