The forecast for Irma has changed a bit this morning. This storm will
become a major hurricane in the next 24 hours or so, which is a significant
development.
UKMET, NHC, and GFS are not in agreement with the track. UKMET has not
changed since yesterday, still showing the storm to pass north of the Bahamas.
NHC still shows the storm headed towards the Windward Islands as a major
hurricane.
GFS yesterday had the storm going to the northwest and hooking to the
northeast around the western edge of the Bermuda High. This morning it
forecast the storm making landfall in the Norfolk/Washington/Baltimore area in
ten days.
>
> At the same time, we now have TS Irma out in the western Atlantic.
>Though a week away fron entering the Carribean, climate factors are
>somewhat favourable for this storm to affect the US mainland along the
>Gulf Coast or the Atlantic Seaboard. Harvey was just a tropical storm
>when it struck Yucatan, and dropped down to a depression while crossing
>the peninsula. It only took 48 hours to reach category 4 status.
>
> The principal aggravating factor is the lack of shearing winds,
>which serve to limit the rate of growth and ultimate strength of
>tropical cyclones. Those winds are still lacking as the Hadley Cell
>downdraught is pushing the jet stream northward.
>
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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