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Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Irma

Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Irma
From: Ken Norton <ken@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2017 01:26:47 -0800
Technically speaking, a 100-year flood means that the chance of a flood of
that level occuring in that spot in any given year is 1%. The likelihood of
a 1/500 or 1/100 event occuring SOMEWHERE each year is quite high. The
media hypes it as a 100 or 500 year event when it really has nothing to do
with 100 or 500 year occurances.

In the Mississippi River watershed, there is a 100-year flood nearly every
year and a 500-year flood about every five years somewhere. The grass is
pretty much completely cooked at our Iowa house, while there was a 100-year
flood event less than 20 moles away.

As to the hurricanes this year, it happens once in a while where there are
no shearing winds to cap the storms out, and in the case of Houston, it was
a high precipitation storm that ran headlong into a pressure ridge that
stalled its movement. The total rainfall was of epic proportions, but
wouldn't have been much of an issue had it not stopped moving.

Out west, we have a lot of forest fires burning. It's a bad year, but it
happens once in a while. Anybody remember the year Yellowstone burned" Most
of the affected forests have a large percentage of dying or dead trees
because of various bug infestations. The earth does take care of itself in
one way or another. Meanwhile, in Alaska, we've had one of the coldest and
wettest summers on record. There is snow on the peaks several miles from
our house.

AG


-- 
Ken Norton
ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.zone-10.com
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