I don't suppose that Tina is very excited about the possibility of Joaquin
turning to the west and inundating North Carolina.
Chris
>
>WOW - Sitting here in one of the target zones (Chesapeake Bay) is not good
>feeling... to coin a phrase. 😇
>
>
>> > It is strange, to say the least. I've been watching the developing
>> high-pressure system north of Bermuda. GFS missed this feature when
>> forecasting Sandy, but UKMET caught it and got the forecast right. If that
>> high-pressure system is strong enough it will prevent any tracking to the
>> east.
>> >
>> > UKMET has Joaquin passing right over Bermuda.
>>
>>
>> That low positioned over the Azores is what is screwing everything up
>> for me. That puppy just ain't budging. While it looks like it might
>> influence the development of a High north of Bermuda, I'm not sure
>> that it would be so much of a high as a lack of low. Look at the WV
>> loop and you can see that dry airmass being forced down towards
>> Joaquin and hitting a wall about 200 miles NE of it. Just in the last
>> three hours a dry-line boundary has setup and some massive storms are
>> kicking up. That dry-line looks like it might stop pushing SW and the
>> Hurricane might be able to start moving north. But if it doesn't stop
>> pushing, Joaquin will keep moving towards Cuba.
>>
>> It's the high-level winds that are not quite squaring up, though.
>> There is a part of me that says that this isn't going to turn north at
>> all, but get shoved SW across Cuba. There is so much upper level shear
>> associated with this frontal boundary going across the south-east that
>> it will either turn left across Cuba or it will get shoved by the
>> mid-level jetstream and move right up the coast without ever turning
>> inland. Yet, what is developing in the mid-levels over the central USA
>> right now could cause it to turn inland around New Jersey again.
>>
>> The low pressure is estimated at 942mb right now, which makes it
>> pretty significant. As this puppy just isn't moving, it's turned into
>> a solid mass of precip. Usually, you get well defined rainbands, but
>> this has turned into what looks like a big filled pastry. But the
>> eyewall just expanded out again.
>>
>> We'll see if it turns tonight.
>>
>
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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